1. The ultra-low emission transformation of thermal power has been completed, and the demand structure of desulfurization non-metallic compensator is being switched
A few years ago, everyone still remembers the battle of ultra-low emission transformation of thermal power? Compensator manufacturers have eaten dividends for several years, and orders for non-metallic expansion joints are scheduled for half a year. However, at the end of 2024, the transformation of many large groups has basically ended, and there are very few new units. Then the question arises-is the market about to cool?
In fact, the demand structure is shifting from "new supporting facilities" to "stock replacement". Those non-metallic expansion joints (that is, what we call fabric fiber expansion joints) in the desulfurization system start to age in three to five years, especially at the inlet and outlet of the flue, where wear, corrosion and tear occur frequently. Think about it, there are more than a dozen compensators in the light desulfurization section of a 300MW unit. Now there are thousands of units in China, and the annual replacement volume is stable. However, there are fewer new projects, and the previous order mode by project batch is being replaced by scattered and small-batch maintenance orders, which requires higher response speed of the supply chain.
2. The prices of upstream raw materials fluororubber and PTFE fluctuate, and the cost transmission mechanism has failed
Fluororubber and PTFE (polytetrafluoroethylene) are the core raw materials of non-metallic compensator for desulfurization. In 2024, the price of fluororubber has taken a roller coaster ride-28,000/ton at the beginning of the year, fell to 22,000 in the middle of the year, and rebounded back to 25,000 at the end of the year. PTFE is stable, and it has been swinging around 45,000. But the strange thing is that the price of finished products did not follow the increase of raw materials; The raw materials fell, and the finished products did not fall much.
Two days ago, I met a colleague who made PTFE-lined hoses. He complained: "When raw materials rise, customers urge prices to be reduced. When raw materials fall, customers are even more ruthless, and they directly reduce prices by 10%." To put it bluntly, the budgets of downstream power plants and engineering companies are stuck to death. When bidding, the low-priced person wins, and the cost can't be transmitted at all. Nowadays, the gross profit margin of manufacturers who make non-metallic compensators is generally reduced from the previous 25% to about 15%, and life is difficult. What about that? It can only be to fight the process, reduce the scrap rate, or rely on high value-added products.
3. Upgrade of wear resistance and corrosion resistance requirements: transformation from ordinary non-metallic expansion joints to PTFE-lined and rubber PTFE composite structures
In the past, after desulfurization, the flue temperature was low, and the corrosiveness of the medium was not so strong, so ordinary non-metallic expansion joints (fabric fiber expansion joints) were enough. But now it's different-after ultra-low emission, the flue gas has high humidity content and high acid dew point, and some units start and stop frequently with peak shaving, and the temperature fluctuates drastically. Ordinary rubber compensators simply can't hold it, and they rotten in a few months.
So these two years,Rubber PTFE compensatorAndPTFE-lined hoseIt became a hot cake. The rubber PTFE composite structure has both the elasticity of rubber and the corrosion resistance of PTFE, which is especially suitable for the complicated working conditions of the inlet and outlet of the desulfurization flue gas baffle door. There is also a trend: the original single-layer non-metallic cloth is now required to add PTFE lining, or directlyPTFE compensator。 Although the price is twice as expensive, the life span can reach 5 years, which is more cost-effective.
By the way, don't forgetDesulfurization flue gas baffle doorIt is also being upgraded-double-sealed single-axis circular baffle door, electric plug-in insulation door and other products, and the supporting compensator has to change its structure. If you sell one end without matching, the customer will find someone else.
4. Start of the maintenance cycle of the stock market: calculation of the supporting replacement demand of desulfurization flue gas baffle door and compensator
The batch of ultra-low emission transformation desulfurization projects around 2020 are exactly five years old now. According to the average life of non-metallic expansion joints of 4-6 years, 2025-2027 will usher in the first wave of concentrated replacement peak. I calculated an account: there are about 1.3 billion kilowatts of thermal power units in operation in China, with 3-5 non-metallic compensators per 10,000 kilowatts, and the average price of a single unit is 3,000-6,000 yuan. The optical compensator is a market of more than one billion. PlusFlue gas baffle doorOverhauls and replacements, such as double-sealed single-axis circular baffle doors, andRound Flap Door (Double Seal)These are replaced in complete sets with compensators, and the overall market size is more than 3 billion.
However, it should be noted that the stock projects are scattered, unlike new projects, which are concentrated in several large construction sites. Generally, power plants replace four or five units during a maintenance period, and will not place orders in large quantities at one time. Therefore, if you do this business, you have to spread out the sales network or bind it to the maintenance service provider of the power plant. Some manufacturers have started to push the service of "compensator + baffle door packaging and replacement", such as our website'sDesulfurization flue gas baffle doorAndRubber PTFE compensatorWe can combine the supply, customers are worry-free, and our premium is a little higher.
5. Market forecast in the second half of 2025: Overcapacity and partial shortage coexist, and procurement strategy needs to be adjusted
Low-end ordinary non-metallic expansion joints have serious overcapacity, but high-end products, such as large-diameter PTFE-lined compensators, high-temperature and high-pressure resistantHigh temperature axial expansion jointInstead, supply exceeds demand. A few days ago, a power plant invited a bid.rubber compensatorIt is required to have PTFE lining and temperature resistance above 200℃. As a result, the delivery date of the three manufacturers is scheduled to 45 days later.
In the second half of the year, if the project is not in a hurry, try to avoid the peak maintenance period at the end of the third quarter, when the manufacturer's production capacity is squeezed and the price is very hard. If you need it urgently, give priority to those withRubber PTFE compensatorAndPTFE compensatorSuppliers in stock. In addition, don't just look at the unit price, but calculate the whole life cycle cost-which one takes 2 years for an ordinary piece of 3,000 pieces and 5 years for a composite structural piece of 6,000 pieces. Which is cost-effective? Settle the dead debt and you will understand.
The market is changing. In the past, the road of relying on relationships and price reduction is getting narrower and narrower. Whoever can come up with real things in wear resistance, corrosion resistance and long life will be able to eat the meat of the stock market.